interesting and very informative stuff billy t. thanks.
so it would appear there are two sides testing where the ukraine stands if they are to take a side. will they want to be autonomous which with western support they might achieve. or do they simply want to benefit from a strong omitted relationship with russia. this would be a key consideration for any invading force from west or east.
i am sure there are benefits to the west if they were to take it. certainly there are resources that would pay their expenses if contracted to them. but the west does not look like they are provoking the situation. russia is making a very clear statement that ukraine will either maintain their allegiance to moscow or they could be forced to. the west appears to making sure that the ukranian people know they have a choice if they choose otherwise.
the thing that surprises me is that the crimea was annexed to russia without much by way of opposition from the west. that can probably be attributed to europe 's dependence on russian energy resources. if it was all out US against russia and europe wasn't in the middle then the US may not have been so willing to stand by.
The thing is, that it seems like, unintentionally, Ukraine and Russia are both giving the other one what they want.....If Ukraine's anti-uprising movements get too violent, Putin has the very justification he needs to stop pussy footing around with special forces and just roll in large. While at the same time Putin has done an awful lot to strengthen nationalism and patriotism amongst Ukrainians of all ethnicities...Knock on effect-here in Moldova, most people seemed to feel pretty ambivalent about Ukraine unless they had family from there, now there are marches for Ukrainian solidarity and people I know who coulnd't have given two shakes about Ukraine two months ago are pretty worked up.....Nobody likes a bully, and with Russia's history of ebing the big boy in the neighborhood, this is stirring up resentment all over the neighborhood..... Putin is winning in Ukraine to be sure, but it looks more and more like all his short term gains will cost the traditionally strong relationship they had in the long run.....While dismantling Ukraine he has brought most of it's people closer together....
When the people of Kharkhiv and Zaporozhiya (Russian speaking cities) ran the "local self defense" guys out of town last week, it put the final nail in the coffin of Putin needing to protect Russians in Ukraine.....
But of course some ethnic Russians in Ukraine are terrified...but imagine if the only sources of news you had available to you, the only ones you could understand were all saying that the guys in the next village over were coming to kill you, and you could find no source of information to contradict this-you'd certainly be on the lookout....This is what has happened in parts of Ukraine...And the governement in Kyiv shares the blame in this....They haven't come out to visit to reassure people, they got so wrapped up in their post Maidan euphoria they forgot to speak in Russian as well, and so there was certainly someone waiting to speak to these people....Note also that while Kharkhiv and Zaporozhiya are Russian as a first langauge cities, they also have a higher incidence of people who speak both and so had access to more information....
Something else on what "they" want....
Of course the west has an agenda, and of course no one believes it's all puppy dogs and rainbows because it isn't. What you have in at least the three post Soviet countries I have lived in over the past 11 years is as much an age divide as a culture divide.....The pensioners, most all anyway, had a better life under the USSR....The pensions they recieve these days is absolutely shameful.....But the young people never grew up under the USSR and so have no fond memories of it, they have also had access to books about the bad shit that went down that their grandparents didnt...... An ethnic Russian friend of mine in Kyiv (26 years old at the time- Lawyer, from a prominent former USSR military family) for weeks just going on about how dumbfounded he was upon reading about Stalin and the purges and genocides, even in the 90's they hadn't learned this stuff in school.....
And this is a tricky bit..... We in the west were taught that every day in the Soviet Union was an unending hell. It wasn't. People still fell in love, had a laugh and drink with friends after work, went on picnics, had children etc....So now for their grandparents to accept the truly vile stuff that went on, can feel like a turning of their backs on their own lives...Nobody in any country wants to that, Germany is the only place I can think of that really has....
Now young people today here aren't interested in ideologies or soviet nostalgia, they want the same thing young people want everywhere- mobile phones and material crap but also jobs and dignity, an ability to take care of themselves and to travel....When looking at the politics of any eastern european country don't discount the desire to travel...these young people meet young people from western europe, north america and oz and they judge their lives against the lives of young people from these countries and they are often left feeling embarrassed by their lack of worldliness and of their poverty....I know we all look at it as silly marketing and FIFA yanking our chains, but I'll tell you I think when Ukraine co-hosted the European Football Championships two years ago, it changed the young people in Ukraine....Even ones who never had the money or visa to travel got to meet the rest of Europe, and they liked you guys....
