You flipped those states back and there is no way he wins .
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You are overlooking and leaving out one key factor in your prediction: incumbent.
It is extremely are for an incumbent to lose a Presidential election. Only happened five times. One has to be a real disaster (Carter) or be challenged by a dynamic, charismatic new candidate (Obama, Clinton) for an incumbent to lose. Trump, though he may be a disaster, is not perceived to be one by half the country, and there is no dynamic, charismatic new candidate running for President on the Democratic side.
Unless something really, really bad happens in the next year and a half, Trump the incumbent will win re-election.