Author Topic: Coronavirus (Covid 19)  (Read 7012 times)

Pumpkin

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #30 on: March 26, 2020, 12:50:01 PM »
In reply to Johnz.

When I said, ‘To me, what this would seem to suggest’, I should have clarified ‘this’ as the drop in mobile phone users/accounts. It is what I meant, but I should have been clearer.

I’ve made use of modal verbs (would and could) which clearly don’t state anything definitive. This is additionally reinforced by the use of ‘suggest’, because that is what it is, and ‘to me’ to reflect this is my interpretation and/or opinion(s). I write in such a manner for these reasons.

I think it’s hardly an example of ‘misleading information’ on the basis of some ‘questionable agenda’. What I said here was not stated as fact, but when it was you had no issue with it. So, what exactly is this ‘questionable agenda’ then? My central criticism throughout is of Xi and the CCP and their collective, abhorrent behaviour. I note you haven’t taken issue with that or the connection between ‘wet markets’ and coronaviruses. This is really central to my argument, isn’t it?

I’ve read widely on the issue, probably more than the average person at this stage, and I certainly don’t claim to know everything. I also have some personal experience which offers a first-hand insight, having recently been in Jiangxi, the next province to Hubei (Wuhan), in late October and November last year. I saw a 'wet' market in Nanchang; I'll refrain from comments here. What I can definitely say is one can’t function in China without a mobile phone (as a tracking device and form of ID, to pay for goods and services etc…). The very next day after I arrived I was presented with a Chinese SIM card, because 'this makes life so much easier for you'. The government tracks everything you do, and they know exactly where you are and where you are going at all times. Using facial recognition and mobile phone tracking, I wasn’t even able to gain access to certain buildings or even leave the one I lived in without having my mobile, literally in my hand, and showing my face into a screen before I left. Personally, I found the overwhelming ‘Orwellian’ edge to everything about everyday life quite unsettling, as I imagine many here would. Consequently, I find it almost impossible to believe that the authorities somehow don't know what's going on, especially with what happened in neighbouring Wuhan in December of last year. 

Such a massive collapse in mobile phone users/accounts would seem to suggest (again note the choice of language) the death toll is higher than official figures, and that a number of people have gone missing. I actually provided proof of the latter, small though it is. This decline is also down to the economic effects of the CCP’s behaviour - which I stated in no uncertain terms. I don’t believe you refuted this. The higher than official death toll isn’t a proven fact yet, and it may never be unless the CCP come clean, but I would confidently suggest that it is much higher. However, I’d be more than glad to be proven wrong here. 

Your assertion I believe Russia would not resort to the same tactics concerning data manipulation remains unclear. Earlier I stated Russia is not really what this is all about. I support closing borders as soon as possible - hence the example. I also upheld Japan and Ireland as good examples of this. There is no dispute about this. However, I also said the WHO ‘seems to be patting Russia on the back’, but ‘only time will tell if they experience the same spikes in numbers…’ I’m critical of their failure to apply the same border closures throughout. There is now an official increase in confirmed cases. It may well be inaccurate, but they could also refute that increase. As I understand, that increase in confirmed cases is due to returning nationals from abroad. Perhaps there’s more to it. There is the argument of increases in pneumonia and the connection to the coronavirus, but there is also disagreement about this in the Reuters article you presented. Therefore, it’s not really offering any concrete evidence, is it? It’s an interesting and important read, nonetheless, the subject of which deserves attention.

Are we getting the full number of infected cases and even deaths in Russia…Iran…Italy…Spain…the USA and the UK? Most likely we aren’t (at present) for a number of reasons beyond this post.

Herein lies the difference: the virus didn’t originate in these countries. China has a vested interest, and a clear 'questionable agenda' in downplaying these numbers for that reason, and that reason alone, not to mention a number of others. I could see a plausible reason to suggest Russia and Iran would or could downplay numbers.

**There is now talk in the UK that we are 'fiddling' the death figures amid concerns for 'family consent'. What largely seems to be true now is that data collection is not uniform in many countries. Could Boris Johnson really be doing this, keeping criticism of the CCP off the table and still keeping the borders open for incoming flights from China, when the rest of us are all in lockdown, to get his much valued free-trade deal? Any quarantine measures in place? Just a thought... 

Again, it’s what has happened/is happening in China that is of fundamental importance here. I think any defence of the CCP would be a ‘questionable agenda’. They did it with SARS in 2002; they’re doing it again in 2019-2020.

Out of interest, do you think if the same thing had happened in Hong Kong or Taiwan that they would have behaved in this manner?

Unfortunately, this is a repeat of SARS, but on a greater, far more worrying scale.

I sincerely hope we learn from this one for a change. If we are to do so, we have to be able to question everything about it. The CCP clearly doesn't want anyone in China or the outside world to do that. That was evident from even before it was officially recognised. 


** Added to original post in light of new information.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 02:51:36 PM by Pumpkin »

Ghosttrain

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #31 on: March 26, 2020, 02:34:38 PM »
We have had our first death here in Jersey,surely we must lock down now ?....  >:(...

cthulhu

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #32 on: March 26, 2020, 09:42:43 PM »
@Pumpkin

One thing you haven't mentioned or considered is a central fault of observation for your theory. in china millions of people have at least two sim cards. that's because millions of workers are wandering workers, outside or inside of china. there are more than 1,6 billion sim card contracts in china, so that is much more than the overall population. so with a very rectricted travel possibility many of those owners of more than one card had no use for one of those cards to avoid roaming costs or couldn't use it anymore under quarantine. like having one card for your carphone, sitting with family members at home and its cheaper to cancel one contract while havein several mobile phones at hand.
this loosing of sim card contracts is a sign of a recession more than a sign of vanished and dead people.
ever tried. ever failed. no matter.
try again. fail again. fail better.
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Johnz

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #33 on: March 27, 2020, 11:10:32 AM »
@Pumpkin

China's handling of the situation was certainly not ideal but they are not alone in this. Besides, Russia's track-record is just as bad when it comes to suppressing information that might be damaging to the regime. True, China should have been more open about this from the start but we have known about the virus for 3 months now and most countries outside of SE Asia have only started to react in the last 3 weeks. A costly mistake that may cost tens of thousands of lives.

Personally, I am pondering the long-term implications of this pandemic. I am slowly starting to realize that life or society as we know it may be severely altered by these events. Questions I am pondering include:

Will this make us more caring of the weak and less fortunate or more accepting of life's inequalities?
Who will pay for this? The rich or the poor?
Economically, what exactly is the problem? The people, money, goods, raw materials infra-structure etc., everything will still be there. It will be a question of organizing it in new ways but what will that look like?


Ghosttrain

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #34 on: March 27, 2020, 11:39:46 AM »
Boris Johnson tests positive....Just heard on the news Matt Hancock also positive..
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 02:01:27 PM by Ghosttrain »

ldopas

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #35 on: March 27, 2020, 02:07:22 PM »
We have had our first death here in Jersey,surely we must lock down now ?....  >:(...

Who knows what is best? Sweden are going for Herd Immunity at the moment.

Pumpkin

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #36 on: March 27, 2020, 02:11:19 PM »
@Pumpkin

One thing you haven't mentioned or considered is a central fault of observation for your theory. in china millions of people have at least two sim cards. that's because millions of workers are wandering workers, outside or inside of china. there are more than 1,6 billion sim card contracts in china, so that is much more than the overall population. so with a very rectricted travel possibility many of those owners of more than one card had no use for one of those cards to avoid roaming costs or couldn't use it anymore under quarantine. like having one card for your carphone, sitting with family members at home and its cheaper to cancel one contract while havein several mobile phones at hand.
this loosing of sim card contracts is a sign of a recession more than a sign of vanished and dead people.

Well, I was one of those people with a Chinese SIM card where it will simply look like I don’t exist now. In fact, I myself could be considered one of the disappeared/missing etc… However, I don’t think it’s that easy to cancel your phone in China, given its fundamental importance to everyday life there. At this exact moment, you need to have a green code on your phone to indicate you are in good health, in order to access a number of things. No phone, no life. Population is 1.4bn. Now new estimates say 20-21mn accounts are gone.

One thing for certain is what I said about the ‘undesired effect of the CCP’s behaviour on their own economy’.  I’d also extend the effect to the world economy.

Pumpkin

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #37 on: March 27, 2020, 02:15:14 PM »
@Pumpkin

China's handling of the situation was certainly not ideal but they are not alone in this. Besides, Russia's track-record is just as bad when it comes to suppressing information that might be damaging to the regime. True, China should have been more open about this from the start but we have known about the virus for 3 months now and most countries outside of SE Asia have only started to react in the last 3 weeks. A costly mistake that may cost tens of thousands of lives.

Personally, I am pondering the long-term implications of this pandemic. I am slowly starting to realize that life or society as we know it may be severely altered by these events. Questions I am pondering include:

Will this make us more caring of the weak and less fortunate or more accepting of life's inequalities?
Who will pay for this? The rich or the poor?
Economically, what exactly is the problem? The people, money, goods, raw materials infra-structure etc., everything will still be there. It will be a question of organizing it in new ways but what will that look like?

The way in which China handled the situation was nothing short of criminal at best. I’m very critical of the terribly slow, inadequate response of countries caught in the aftermath, particularly my own. However, the real reason we are where we are now is because of the ignorant, unquestionable dictates to doctors in Wuhan. 

I asked a rhetorical question about what would’ve happened if the same coronavirus had appeared in Taiwan or Hong Kong. I say rhetorical, because we both know the answer is that it wouldn’t have happened. Why? That’s also a rhetorical question.

ldopas

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #38 on: March 27, 2020, 02:22:37 PM »
Personally, I am pondering the long-term implications of this pandemic. I am slowly starting to realize that life or society as we know it may be severely altered by these events. Questions I am pondering include:

Will this make us more caring of the weak and less fortunate or more accepting of life's inequalities?
Who will pay for this? The rich or the poor?
Economically, what exactly is the problem? The people, money, goods, raw materials infra-structure etc., everything will still be there. It will be a question of organizing it in new ways but what will that look like?

Exceptionally good questions!

My guesses are we will be more accepting of life's inequalities. Not because we are evil, but because life is unequal. People seem to be dying at many ages now, whether they have underlying issues or not. I do hope it makes us a bit more caring as the populace of this planet, but I suspect after this there will be some serious legwork required in all areas to clear up the shitstorm we are going through. Just look at the record number of Americans unemployed.

I think one thing we might learn is that the cessation of activities has been good for the planet and think on that!

Who will pay for this? That is an easy one; everyone. Who will that impact on the most? I think you can answer that one easily yourselves.

Third question, yes SOME. not all of it will still be there (infrastructure, projects on pause etc). I suspect most of it will just be revved up again. Certainly that is my plan.

All my staff are currently on furlough, and I can't thank the government enough for stepping in to help with that, while me and my partner/business partner (they are the same) are using this two months to plan that restart of our activities. Though she is currently sunning herself in our garden  ::) as we needed time to chill and get our tactical heads on.

As everyone was in trouble when it all stopped this week, so did everything around us including the offices we rent, other contractors, our rivals etc. I suspect it was the same for most. So it was weird in that it is almost like everything stopped at once, meaning everything is where we left it ready to go in June. The big problem for us and everyone else will be......will we be back in June?

Anyway enough of my wibbling on this. In the end none of us know where we will be in two months really.

As my long gone Dad used to say as a top Construction person; "what worries me is I don't know what I don't know"!

Exactly.  :)

Johnz

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #39 on: March 28, 2020, 10:10:16 AM »

Exceptionally good questions!

My guesses are we will be more accepting of life's inequalities. Not because we are evil, but because life is unequal. People seem to be dying at many ages now, whether they have underlying issues or not. I do hope it makes us a bit more caring as the populace of this planet, but I suspect after this there will be some serious legwork required in all areas to clear up the shitstorm we are going through. Just look at the record number of Americans unemployed.

I think one thing we might learn is that the cessation of activities has been good for the planet and think on that!

Who will pay for this? That is an easy one; everyone. Who will that impact on the most? I think you can answer that one easily yourselves.

Third question, yes SOME. not all of it will still be there (infrastructure, projects on pause etc). I suspect most of it will just be revved up again. Certainly that is my plan.

All my staff are currently on furlough, and I can't thank the government enough for stepping in to help with that, while me and my partner/business partner (they are the same) are using this two months to plan that restart of our activities. Though she is currently sunning herself in our garden  ::) as we needed time to chill and get our tactical heads on.

As everyone was in trouble when it all stopped this week, so did everything around us including the offices we rent, other contractors, our rivals etc. I suspect it was the same for most. So it was weird in that it is almost like everything stopped at once, meaning everything is where we left it ready to go in June. The big problem for us and everyone else will be......will we be back in June?

Anyway enough of my wibbling on this. In the end none of us know where we will be in two months really.

As my long gone Dad used to say as a top Construction person; "what worries me is I don't know what I don't know"!

Exactly.  :)

Yes, the whole world is practically on hold. It's such a strange situation. I run a little tourism venture in New Zealand so that has just headed south. I may just be able to avoid bankruptcy but I can't see the business being able to survive.  So I already know that for me personally, this is will be a complete new beginning but there will be countless others in the same situation.

I'm lucky that the government is very supportive at this stage.  Many people in other countries are not so fortunate.

I somehow don't think we can just carry on where we left off. On the bright side, there is tremendous potential for positive change but unfortunately history would suggest otherwise.

I guess, like most people I'm stuck at home wondering what exactly this all means.




ldopas

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #40 on: March 29, 2020, 03:08:44 PM »

Yes, the whole world is practically on hold. It's such a strange situation. I run a little tourism venture in New Zealand so that has just headed south. I may just be able to avoid bankruptcy but I can't see the business being able to survive.  So I already know that for me personally, this is will be a complete new beginning but there will be countless others in the same situation.

I'm lucky that the government is very supportive at this stage.  Many people in other countries are not so fortunate.

I somehow don't think we can just carry on where we left off. On the bright side, there is tremendous potential for positive change but unfortunately history would suggest otherwise.

I guess, like most people I'm stuck at home wondering what exactly this all means.

I do hope you are not "going South"! How much is the NZ Government giving support or monies to help you bridge the gap? Seeing as it is government that has shut us all down, they need to help. To be fair the UK government are......though how quick that cash comes will be the issue. And I say that as a politically right of centre person. Did you have to lay staff off, or is it just you?

Ghosttrain

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2020, 07:53:57 PM »
Txt. message sent out tonight at 7.00 ,listen to wireless  or visit Gov.website at 8.00 for latest Covid update second person has died in Jersey,and they now know infections not spread by people who have returned to the Island.....so,as of midnight tonight Jersey is in lock down.

Johnz

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #42 on: March 30, 2020, 06:01:23 AM »
I do hope you are not "going South"! How much is the NZ Government giving support or monies to help you bridge the gap? Seeing as it is government that has shut us all down, they need to help. To be fair the UK government are......though how quick that cash comes will be the issue. And I say that as a politically right of centre person. Did you have to lay staff off, or is it just you?

Thanks for your concern ldopas. There is some government help here in NZ but it will only be for the short to medium term (weeks to months). It will bridge the effects of the lockdown but won't help to overcome the longterm implications for travel and tourism. Once travel restrictions are lifted, most people are unlikely to have the money or inclination to go to far-awy places. NZ tourism relies almost entirely on international visitors. I only have two staff who are thankfully being looked after by the state. But from what I can see the tourism industry will take a huge hit (well it already has but this is just the beginning)

I try to be philosphical about it. Less travel and tourism will be good for the planet. NZ like many other places will have to reinvent itself and look at alternative ways to get back on its feet again. So there is plenty of potential for new ideas it's just a question of adapting Here's hoping!

I hope you're going to be ok. I guess the construction work will still be there at least to some extent. NZ was a bit slow to look after the self-employed but they have sorted that out now. Will you be able to keep all your staff employed?


Ghosttrain

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #43 on: March 30, 2020, 07:54:03 AM »
It would seem Jersey is not in lock down....Construction sites,Builders Merchants still open ?...I have just received txt. saying stay in....no one seems to know what's happening...

Johnz

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid 19)
« Reply #44 on: March 30, 2020, 09:02:57 AM »
It would seem Jersey is not in lock down....Construction sites,Builders Merchants still open ?...I have just received txt. saying stay in....no one seems to know what's happening...

What exactly are your lock down conditions? They seem to vary greatly. Here in NZ all non-essential work has stopped. You can go food shopping and on short walks in your local area to get some excercise. The latter is a contentious issue as many people seem to apply their own interpretations to the term local. Looks like the authorities will clamp down harder in the coming days. Meanwhile, everybody is going nuts reporting everyone who appears to brake the rules. I'm equally irritated by the rule breakers and those that denounce them. Basically, everyone is sitting at home being confused and somewhat irritated. A small price to pay for the wellbeing of everyone.